The new tea drink track in 2024 will be a roll of life and death!

According to the data as of December 5, 2024, the total number of new tea stores has decreased by nearly 18,000 in the past year, and nearly 130,000 new tea stores have opened in the same period. This means that more than 140,000 new tea stores have been closed in the past year!

"Breaking the volume" has become the key direction of the new tea drink brand in 2024. Below, we take stock of the 5 hot spots in the new tea beverage industry in 2024, and through these hot spots, we will explore the breaking wind direction and development challenges in 2025.

Super plants

The "Healthy Tea" mental scramble began

"Cooking" and "eating grass" have become the traffic passwords of new tea drinks, and it is super plants that have ascended to the C position of new tea drink product innovation.

Some people ridiculed that buying milk tea recently is like "buying vegetables in the vegetable market", with beetroot, kale, and wheat grass...... All kinds of "dish names" enter the names of new tea products.

This method of "putting vegetables into tea" has been sought after by both supply and demand.

1. Consumers are very "buying"

In July this year, Heytea took the lead in launching the "Super Plant Tea" series, and its first product, "Champion Slimming Bottle", incorporated fruit and vegetable elements such as kale, chia seeds, and apples, and sold more than 3.5 million cups in the first month of its launch, with a TOP1 repurchase rate. According to the "Hey Tea Annual Report", as of the end of December 2024, the super plant tea series has sold more than 37 million cups, of which the sales volume of the new one-week sales of the de-fire slimming bottle exceeded 1.65 million cups, and the highest single-day sales volume was nearly 300,000 cups.

▲ Source: Hey Tea

2. The enthusiasm for brand innovation is high

Driven by Hey Tea, super plant tea has set off an innovation frenzy in the whole industry, and the tea beverage track has "intensively" ushered in new super plant products.

According to the chronological order, in July, Mixue Bingcheng launched "cucumber and pineapple tea" in some areas; In August, Nai Xue's tea launched "Domineering Kale Kiwifruit"; In September, Suge Fresh Fruit Tea launched the "Super Vegetable and Fruit Series"; In October, Heytea's "third super plant tea member" - beetroot beauty bottle was launched; In November, Aunt Shanghai brought a new product of "Kale Slimming Bottle", two new "vegetable juices" of "Light Detox Wheat Grass" and "Light Kale" on Chabaidao, and Lele Tea's "Fresh Slimming Bottle" and "Fresh Luminous Bottle" were also launched in the same month......

In half a year, major leading brands lined up to follow up the super plant tide, and the whole industry chain moved from time to time. At the 2024 HOTELE Shenzhen Exhibition held at the end of this year, a number of beverage supply chain companies interviewed by Sir Sir focused on "super plants" with their main products and R&D focuses. For example, Shanghai Guangxi focuses on regional superfoods, and on the basis of kale, cucumber, bitter gourd, corn and other elements, it also introduces regional characteristics such as Chaoshan Laoxianghuang, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau barley, and South African white pomelo to reconstruct a new experience of healthy drinks.

▲ Source: AI mapping

Upstream and downstream linkage, super plant tea will become a phenomenal single product in 2024 at a super speed! The arrival of super botanical tea has also made the trend of innovation of new tea drink products clearer and clearer.

The first is the "health transformation" that the whole industry is chasing. There is no need to repeat this, from real sugar and real milk to public ingredient lists, and then to super botanical tea, the head brands collectively make a fuss about "health transformation".

The second is that the head brand caters to the segmented needs of the target consumer group by creating "functional labels". "Slimming Bottle", "Beauty Bottle", "Eye-catching Cup", "Luminous Bottle" ...... The highlight of Super Botanical Tea is also to stimulate consumers' purchase motivation by creating product functions with obvious directions.

After half a year of new craze, the next step is the key stage for major brands to form the mind of super botanical tea explosion. With super botanical tea as the main entrance, the "healthy tea" mental scramble will intensify in 2025.

Chinese-style health water

"Food and medicine homology" has attracted giants to increase their weight

Also catering to the health needs of consumers, Chinese-style health water has also ushered in a peak of traffic.

Represented by sour plum soup, small hanging pear soup, red bean water, etc., Chinese-style health water has become a new generation of "life-sustaining water" for young people. Taking sour plum soup as an example, "sour plum soup in traditional Chinese medicine hospitals" has been on the hot search for two consecutive years, and consumers do not hesitate to queue up for hours in the hospital to buy it. Xiaojiao pear soup is also popular, and Xiaohongshu has 550,000+ notes on "the authentic method and attack effect of Xiaojiao pear soup".

The popularity of Chinese-style health water is "visible to the naked eye". According to the "2024 Insight Report on the Development Trend of China's Chinese Health Water Industry" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, in the first five months of 2024, the sales of Chinese health water increased by 94.5% compared with the same period in 2023.

The fast-growing Chinese-style health water has entered the two major tracks of ready-made and ready-to-drink as a dark horse.

In the ready-made beverage track, Naixue's tea, tea Baidao and other leading brands have successively launched related new products. Sun Jinni, president of Dong'e Ejiao, revealed in a recent interview that Nai Xue's tea and its co-branded Ejiao milk tea have been exposed more than 1 billion times on the whole network and sold more than 2 million cups in less than two years. In February 2023, Nai Xue's tea co-branded Dong'e Ejiao launched Ejiao milk tea. In 2024, Nai Xue's tea will launch the "Floor Heating Treasure Tea" series, which integrates healthy ingredients such as yellow glutinous millet from Inner Mongolia, rice cloth from Yunnan, and fire ginger from Guizhou into product innovation by digging deep into regional characteristics, and is regarded as "health tea" by consumers.

▲ Source: Nai Xue's tea official WeChat

There are also tangerine peel and red bean pu'er of tea Baidao, ginseng lemon tea of lemon season, sweet oolong peach gum Dahongpao, etc., these "health" milk teas based on the concept of food and medicine homology have gained a lot of popularity.

▲ Source: Ningji official WeChat

At the same time, there are also a number of "Chinese medicine milk tea" specialty stores all over the country, they more thoroughly infiltrate the concept of food and medicine homology into the products, and some stores even adopt the method of "prescribing first and then making", attracting many young people to try and check in.

In the ready-to-drink track, Chinese-style health water is growing explosively. According to the "2024 Insight Report on the Development Trend of China's Chinese Health Water Industry", in 2022 and the previous four years, only 4 domestic brands have set foot in Chinese health water. And by 2024, 10 brands will join the Chinese health water track in the first five months. At present, there are many leading food and beverage companies such as Yuanqi Forest, Uni-President, Panpan, and Good Hope Water gathered in the Chinese-style health water track. During the reporting period, the number of new Chinese-style health water products reached 166.

▲ Source: Panpan Beverage's official WeChat

The outbreak of Chinese-style health water is overwhelming, and in the opinion of Drink Sir, there are three major driving forces behind this that are worth paying attention to.

First, the general trend of health, similar to super plants, Chinese health water is also the product of the beverage industry's continuous exploration of health transformation. The arrival of Chinese-style health water has made the "health concept" have a more in-depth and appropriate expression.

The second is the change in the health attitude of young people. The health awareness of "crispy young people" has been further awakened, and many young people are no longer satisfied with "punk health", but instead pursue a more refined and more in line with the daily life scene of health preservation, which provides fertile soil for the development of Chinese health water.

The third is cultural self-confidence, so that Chinese elements bring their own traffic. The sense of identity and pride of Chinese people in traditional health culture such as the homology of food and medicine has prompted more people to be willing to understand and try Chinese health water. It can be said that it is cultural self-confidence that has accelerated the spread and popularization of Chinese-style health water.

IPO

Capital will affect the future pattern of the industry

Following Nai Xue's tea and tea Baidao, the "third share of new tea drinks" is unresolved, and the battle is fierce.

At present, the top 3 brands of new tea drinks, Mixue Bingcheng, Gu Ming, and Shanghai Auntie (data source: Narrow Door Dining Eye), are gathering together to sprint for the IPO of Hong Kong stocks.

Behind the push of Hong Kong stocks is the road to the listing of new tea beverage brands after several turns.

Mixue Bingcheng's "three deliveries" listing application materials. On January 1, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that Mixue Bingcheng "updated" its listing application materials. The previous listing application submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on 2 January 2024 lapsed. Going back further, Mixue Bingcheng submitted an A-share listing application to the China Securities Regulatory Commission in September 2022.

Closely following the "three deliveries" information of Mixue Bingcheng, Guming's IPO ushered in new news. On the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on January 9, Gu Ming passed the hearing. In 2024, Gu Ming and Mixue Bingcheng will hand out their prospectuses at the same time. But at present, Gu Ming is faster in rhythm, and it will get the filing notice for overseas issuance and listing on December 9, 2024, update the prospectus on December 15, and pass the hearing on January 9. Because of this, many media predict that ancient tea may be expected to become the "third stock of new tea drinks".

On December 27, 2024, Shanghai Auntie updated its prospectus, and on January 10, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) cooperated to disclose the "Notice on the Filing of Shanghai Auntie (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd.'s Overseas Issuance and Listing and Domestic Unlisted Shares "Full Circulation". This means that the top 3 brands in the number of new tea beverage stores, Mixue Bingcheng, Gu Ming, and Shanghai Auntie, have all been approved for listing in Hong Kong, and at today's stage, the listing of the three major brands has gone through several twists and turns. For new tea brands, the imperative road to market is not all smooth sailing.

As the dust settles on the "third share", the competitive landscape of new tea drinks will further change.

At present, the TOP3 brands have in fact reached the growth ceiling, and the listing has become an outlet for the head brand to break through the growth ceiling internally and break the industry externally. Listing is a key competitive strategy for these brands to seek more capital support and further expand their brand influence.

In 2025, it will be a key node for the three major brands to compete for listing, and it will also be a key node to determine the future direction of the three major brands and even the reshuffle of the head echelon.

Sea

Opportunities and challenges coexist

In addition to listing, going overseas is also one of the main exports of major brands.

According to the recently updated prospectus, as of September 30, 2024, the number of stores outside Chinese mainland has reached 4,800, distributed in Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Nigeria, Kenya, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and other countries and regions.

Heytea mentioned in the "2024 Heytea Annual Report" released on January 2, 2025 that as of 2024, Singapore will open more than 70 stores in Singapore, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, the United States, South Korea, and Hong Kong and Macao, China.

▲ Source: Heytea official WeChat

Also outstanding in overseas markets are brands such as Bawang Tea, Nai Xue's Tea, and Jasmine Milk White.

The head brands collectively go overseas, is the overseas market as imagined "everywhere opportunities"?

Zhang Xiaoqiu, founder of Chayiji, said: In overseas markets such as Thailand and the Middle East, the tea market is either still at the level of ten years ago, or does not understand milk tea at all. In overseas markets, the advantages of Chinese tea brands are very obvious. In this context, in the face of going overseas, we need to think more about our own organizational strength and whether the overseas supply chain can support the overseas strategy.

Yang Chuanguang, co-founder of Momo South Road, a new tea drink waist brand, also fully affirmed the opportunities in overseas markets.

At present, Momo South Road has successfully opened stores in Dubai, Malaysia, Frankfurt and other overseas countries and regions. In Yang Chuanguang's view, the domestic head tea brands are piled up, and it may be a good choice to go ashore in a different place.

Sun Huayan, the founder of Ning, who opened the first store in Singapore, also believes that the overseas market is indeed a way out to avoid involution, and it is indeed not so "volume" in terms of price and brand competition.

The major leading brands are gradually accelerating the pace of overseas expansion, and the mid-waist brands are actively exploring overseas markets, which shows that the enthusiasm of tea brands for overseas markets is increasing. In 2025, going overseas will continue to be one of the main themes of major tea brands to promote sustainable development. And in the process, the challenges faced by brands are also very obvious.

Sun Huayan emphasized in his previous public sharing: "Local laws and regulations, labor costs, etc. must be clearly understood in advance"; Yang Chuanguang reminded to "do a good job in intellectual property protection and clarify the store opening model"; Zhang Xiaoqiu pointed out that "there are certain challenges in the control, operation, and employment of overseas stores". In the final analysis, the test of going overseas is not only the forward-looking vision of the brand, but also the comprehensive management ability.

Food safety

Hidden worries about the development of the industry

Strengthen the construction of food safety every year, every year is the "black cat" complaint platform, the "frequent customer" notified by the China Consumers Association, and the food safety of new tea drinks has been criticized.

On August 1, 2024, the China Consumers Association released the "Hot Spots of Public Opinion on Consumer Rights Protection in the First Half of 2024", which pointed out that in the first half of the year, new tea brands such as Shuyi Xiancao, Ancient Tea, Tea Baidao, and Mo Yogurt "apologized" on the hot search list, and the food safety problems caused by ingredients exceeding the expiration date, poor sense of responsibility of store staff, and chaotic store management processes were an important reason why these brands were exposed by the media.

Frequent food safety incidents have exposed the hidden worries of the development of the new tea beverage industry.

1. The problem of store management and control under rapid expansion has always been there

Foreign objects, poor hygiene, use of expired ingredients...... Almost all of these exposed problems stem from the "individual franchise store behavior", but this "individual behavior" reflects the store control problems that are common in chain brands. Especially for the new tea beverage industry, the franchise model has become the basis for major brands to stake their ground, and the super volume of thousands or even tens of thousands of stores at every turn makes management and control a problem.

It is also mentioned in the "Public Opinion Hot Spots of Consumer Rights Protection in the First Half of 2024" that public opinion calls on new tea brands to establish a strict and sound food safety management system on the basis of implementing and detailing the system.

2. Top brands frequently expose food safety problems, affecting overall consumer trust

In the new tea industry, food safety issues are not unique, and even many leading brands have been on the hot search many times. Among them, mid-to-high-end tea brands have been exposed to food safety problems, which is "subverting consumers' cognition" and "hitting consumers' trust".

I won't go into the details here. Every time such an incident happens, we can always see "never drink milk tea again" in the comment area; "Who else has not collapsed"; "I really don't know who else can drink milk tea...... Consumers' overflowing disappointment with the top brands will eventually be projected onto the entire industry, thus affecting the consumer trust of the industry.

In 2025, food safety construction will still be one of the main tasks of major brands, and it is also a "minefield" for brand development.

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